The Form Guide: Clinical Van Gerwen finding the finishing touch

Michael van Gerwen (Kieran Cleeves/PDC)

PDC Stats Analyst Christopher Kempf assesses the top ten PDC stars - based on their last 200 legs played - ahead of this weekend's Swiss Darts Trophy in Basel.

#1 Averages - Luke Littler
#1 OChE - Luke Littler
#1 Doubles - Michael van Gerwen
#1 171-180 - Luke Littler
#1 99, 101+ Checkout - Michael van Gerwen

PDC Form Guide

Michael van Gerwen finds himself in the unusual position - having struggled with his finishing in the five years since his 2019 World Championship title - of being (for the time being, at least), the PDC's checkout and high-finish champion.

His triumphant weekend in Hungary saw him put on a showcase of spectacular finishing, embellishing his 37th European Tour title with a nine-darter, a 170 checkout and a 110 finish to get over the line in the final's deciding leg.

Over his last 200 legs, Van Gerwen has hit doubles with 48% of his attempts - a figure overshadowed only by Damon Heta's achievement last week of hitting a majority of doubles for the first time in Form Guide history.

However, without the power scoring to which fans are more accustomed from MvG (his final session of play in Budapest saw him produce only five 180s in 35 legs), he remains nearly three points off the high-average pace set by Luke Littler, who enjoyed a week's holiday after winning Players Championship 20.

Gary Anderson and Van Gerwen have not contested a professional match in more than 16 months, and though the Dutchman has won 69% of their career meetings, it is Anderson, fresh from another Players Championship win (his fifth since 2023), who would have the advantage in terms of OChE should they meet again in 2024.

Three match averages in excess of 105 and comfortable victories against veteran players like Mickey Mansell, Jonny Clayton and James Wade have boosted his average to within one point of 100.

The new Scottish #1 form player would expect to win 62.4% of legs against average ProTour rivals, compared to 62.0% for van Gerwen.

Some 36 years in age separate the form #1 and #2 from each other, but teenage phenomenon Littler has less than a 1.5 point lead in averages over the two-time World Champion, and may be surprised to see a venerated player throw more than 100 180s, like him, after all these decades of professional play.

Gian van Veen's career has taken a big step forward after coming within one dart of winning his first PDC stage title, and his performances in his last 200 legs have allowed him to surpass Dutch legend Raymond van Barneveld on the Form Guide and reach #17 in averages.

Nevertheless, it is a different young Dutchman in the top 10, in the form of Wessel Nijman.

One of only three players to be ranked top 10 in OChE, averages and doubles, Nijman has produced a higher average than Littler in his 2024 Players Championship campaign (thought Littler got the better of him in their Players Championship 15 final).

Should Nijman qualify for his second PDC World Championship, as appears likely, his opponents will be facing a player averaging 46% doubles accuracy over 200 legs.

First Wesley Plaisier, now Connor Scutt; another player without a Tour Card has reached the final of a Players Championship event in 2024.

Since Scutt - the Challenge Tour Order of Merit leader - can only participate in Players Championship events if other Tour Card Holders do not participate, he does not appear regularly on the Form Guide.

Suppose he did: where would he rank among darts' elite? If we consider his last 200 legs in ProTour events, we find that Scutt is averaging north of 94, and playing at a pace to win 53.5% of legs against ProTour opponents.

This would put him on the verge of the top 32 on form, just ahead of Jonny Clayton and within half a point of Peter Wright.

A few more strong performances on the floor could see him win a Tour Card outright without any Q School headaches; and his current performances give every indication that he would be a tough competitor against the current crop of PDC professionals.

*OChE (Ordinal Checkout Efficiency) explained:
OChE is a metric designed to evaluate the efficiency at which players convert their averages into legs won.
The statistic is the % of legs a player would expect to win on the ProTour, calculated from a weighted average of 4,5, 6 & 7 visit checkout rates.

Follow Christopher on Twitter @ochepedia