Stats Analysis: The numbers behind Mike De Decker's World Grand Prix win

Mike De Decker (Simon O'Connor/PDC)

In his latest column, PDC Stats Analyst Christopher Kempf analyses the key numbers behind Mike De Decker's remarkable BoyleSports World Grand Prix success in Leicester...

The world now knows the name Mike De Decker, a player who had never won a PDC title until August and is now World Grand Prix champion.

In doing so, the 28-year-old Belgian defeated a who's-who of darting royalty, all of whom are past TV champions.

Luke Humphries, in his post-match remarks, marvelled at his opponent's consistency: "Every time, it's like the double was going in, every single throw".

At the most critical moments of the tournament, De Decker set a standard for double-in accuracy that not only thwarted all attempts by his opponents to disrupt their experienced rival's march to the title, but broke records for any player in the 27-year history of the World Grand Prix.

Even if Damon Heta had not missed his one match dart in the first round and had ended De Decker's magical run on the day it began, De Decker would still have contributed to a bit of history - the greatest starting double match in PDC history.

The Belgian and the Australian only ever attempted one double (16) to begin a leg in this match, never missing it by enough to warrant switching.

In total, double 16 was struck 28 times with only 35 attempts, and never with a third dart (a first in World Grand Prix history) - the 80% overall accuracy so thoroughly shattering the old record of 60% (from 2015) that it may stand the test of time.

In his battle with 'The Heat', De Decker even strung together seven consecutive legs of first-dart double-in success, a streak surpassed only twice within a single match in the past five years.

If a player can't get the starting double out of the way with his first dart, his next objective is to 'get in' before his opponent returns to the board.

Failing to do so allows extra time for doubts about a player's viability in the leg to fester, and provides encouragement to his opponent; after all, three misses might invite three more!

De Decker, in losing the first two legs of the final, twice failed to strike the double with one of his first three darts.

Yet then, to Humphries' dismay, De Decker put together a streak lasting for the next 30 legs in which 'The Real Deal' did not return to the board without first having hit his target starting double.

Such a streak has been surpassed only once, by Adrian Lewis in 2010, and matches the longest streak ever achieved by the event's 11-time champion, Phil Taylor.

By the time the streak ended, De Decker had taken 16 of the next 22 legs off the World Champion, and built a 4-1 lead in sets.

Humphries then responded with two very difficult and timely checkouts in the sixth set, eventually drawing level at 4-4.

At this point, having seen his lead evaporate, many reasonable observers would have expected the Belgian, in his first PDC televised final, to wilt under the stage lights in Leicester.

However, as if his seven consecutive doubles against Heta were not enough, instead De Decker responded with an even more astonishing streak - a ten-leg period, ending with the penultimate leg, in which the man from Mechelen was perfect in hitting double 16 to start, 10 for 10.

Records from early editions of the World Grand Prix are inconclusive, but it appears unlikely that any other player, at any stage of the tournament, has ever had ten successive legs without a missed starting double.

De Decker did so in his first ranking TV final, having surrendered a large lead, and never gave his World Champion opponent even the slightest double-in mistake with which to recapture the advantage in the match.

The 2024 World Grand Prix is the first edition of the tournament in which a majority of the starting doubles attempted were double 16.

De Decker, having attempted more than 200 of them en route to the title, did not break any overall accuracy records set by Jonny Clayton in 2021 and Luke Humphries in 2023, even though he hit nearly 50% of his starting doubles overall.

But the fact that so many of his successful hits were concentrated in the most crucial moments of the tournament, allowing him to survive a match dart from Heta and a furious comeback from Humphries, probably did more to help him win than a higher overall percentage, without those same record-breaking streaks, would have done.

For after all, in observing De Decker's consistency, Humphries became more and more confident that his opponent would not miss.