In his latest column, PDC Stats Analyst Christopher Kempf evaluates the probability of a new world record average being registered in the 2025 BetMGM Premier League.
When Michael van Gerwen broke the televised world record nine years ago in the 2016 Premier League with a 123.40 average, many observers understandably expected the record not to stand for very long.
Phil Taylor averaged 115 in the the very next match after Van Gerwen's world record effort in Aberdeen, and Van Gerwen nearly managed 117 in his match the following week - all told, the 110 average mark was exceeded eight times in that Premier League alone.
Had the 2016 Premier League been contested under the best of 11 legs format of its current iteration (rather than best of 12), MvG would have averaged 136.64 and set an almost unbreakably high record.
To date, however, there has been only one other televised average in excess of 120 in the PDC - Kim Huybrechts' effort in the now-defunct best-of-seven singles format of the World Cup.
In the nightly tournament-elimination scheme adopted for the current Premier League as well as its 2022, 2023 and 2024 editions, there have been no averages greater than 116.
If the PDC had best of one leg matches, the world record would be tied every time a nine-dart leg was thrown - but with the requirement in almost all events that a player check out in 6 legs to win a match, a more sustained effort is needed to put one's name in the history books.
Consider Nathan Aspinall. Of his last 200 legs, only 13 produced an average greater than that of the current televised world record of 123.40 - mostly legs won in 11 or 12 darts.
Yet it is possible to lose a leg and improve one's average, as proved by a leg from Aspinall's New Years Day match versus Luke Littler at the World Championship, in which he scored 441 points in 9 darts (followed up by Littler's 11-dart checkout on throw).
Moreover, even if Aspinall did not manage to exceed the world record pace in every leg, it is still possible for him to average slightly less in one or two and still remain on pace in aggregate.
This increases to 30 the number of legs in which 'The Asp' was on world-record pace, or 15% of his last 200 legs.
For Aspinall to win a match 6-0 and set a new world record average, he would need to replicate an occurrence which has odds of roughly 13:1 in six consecutive legs (winning six consecutive legs on pace for the world record) - an event, in total, which would occur in only 1 out of 5.6 million attempts.
15% of his legs, win or lose, put him on pace if we accept that Aspinall can lose legs (as MvG did in 2016) in pursuit of the record, and it may seem that this is the likeliest route for him.
Now, in accordance with the probability of those on-pace legs being won and lost, Aspinall would have to play nine legs and win 6-3.
With more successive events required to align to produce a new record, the odds are even more remote: 1 in 26 million.
The most realistic hopes for a broken record rest with Luke Littler, a player with 37 legs won in the fourth visit of his last 200 played.
In the best case scenario, Littler could even have a 14-darter and remain on pace to exceed 123.40 in a 6-0 win: his most recent form suggests that he will break the world record in one of his next 2,888 best-of-11 matches.
However, as Littler's most recent 113.91 average demonstrates, losing legs (as he did six times in his loss to Michael van Gerwen) need not prevent 'The Nuke' from aiming for the record.
A 6-1 or 6-2 win would allow Littler to throw a few extra 180s without having to attempt (and occasionally miss) doubles: accordingly Littler's probability of breaking the record in seven or eight legs is 2,606:1.
No other player could take down Van Gerwen’s 123.40 average on current form - not even the Dutchman himself - before Littler had done so half a dozen times over.
There are 105 remaining matches to be played in the 2025 Premier League, and each player will have at least 15 more chances to do what no Premier League participant has done since Van Gerwen's record performance in February 2016.
Nevertheless, the odds of any player other than Littler setting a new world record are extremely poor.
If Littler plays 30 matches on current form, however, there is better than a 1% chance that a new record average is set.
Furthermore, if Littler's form continues to improve, then a record which has appeared invulnerable for the better part of a decade could become the latest casualty in the teenager's impending campaign of domination of the game of darts.
Follow Christopher on Twitter @ochepedia