Can Jose De Sousa cause an upset by defeating Peter Wright on Night Two of the 2020 Betfred World Matchplay? The PDC's official stats analyst Christopher Kempf takes a closer look.
The World Champion faces a star of the Summer Series in one of the most highly-anticipated first round match-ups at the 2020 Betfred World Matchplay.
Portuguese darts players, in general, have yet to make their mark on the international darts scene.
Never have the Portuguese fielded a team at the World Cup, and only one player representing Portugal has ever qualified for the World Championship.
That player is José Augusto Oliveira de Sousa - and now, after years of obscurity, the idiosyncratic and impetuous De Sousa has burst into prominence with two Players Championship titles, a phenomenal Summer Series campaign and the chance of knocking out the World Champion in round one of his first World Matchplay.
Peter Wright, contesting his first ranking TV event as number two seed, could barely have had a more challenging draw presented to him.
Even if he does take down the Portuguese maverick on Sunday, he is likely to face three-time Lakeside Champion Glen Durrant in his second match.
At the back of Wright's mind is sure to be the fact that if he suffers an early elimination, Gerwyn Price will have the opportunity, should he win the title, to usurp Wright's position as world number two.
But before Wright can concern himself with his usual rivals, he must contend with the fact that over the five days of the PDC Summer Series, his opponent recorded a higher average (100.50) than any of the other Tour Card Holders - including Michael van Gerwen - contesting matches in Milton Keynes.
His estimated accuracy on treble 20 rose from 40.1% in the first eight Players Championship events of the year to 45.2% for the Summer Series.
Of the 171 legs in which De Sousa had at least four visits to the board, the Portuguese player finished the leg in 12 darts or fewer 13.5% of the time - more than double the Summer Series overall rate of 5.7%.
One would not have expected a relatively new Tour Card Holder to match the World Champion in output of 180s, but De Sousa nearly did just that in the Summer Series, hitting 67 180s at a per-leg rate nearly equivalent to that of the 97 completed by Wright.
If there is one statistical aspect in which Wright has the clear upper hand, it is in hitting doubles to win the leg.
De Sousa completed the Summer Series having hit an estimated 42.4% of his doubles, which is well above the PDC average and even represents an improvement over his 40.9% on the ProTour earlier in the year, but Wright was not far off, on 48.6%, from hitting a majority of his.
While De Sousa hit a higher percentage of his 101+ finishes last week than Wright, he missed three darts at double in a visit 15 times in 55 attempts.
The difference between the two player is illustrated by Wright's unflappability on the easiest checkouts - Wright not only completed one-dart finishes at a rate more than 10 percentage points higher than the Portuguese upstart, he enters the World Matchplay having completed 20 consecutive such finishes.
One cannot lack talent and average 100+ 11 times in 18 matches, as De Sousa did in the Summer Series, but De Sousa's major shortcoming is his penchant for eccentric and often inexplicable miscounts and checkout choices.
De Sousa is by now famous for attempting the statistically questionable three-double-20s checkout from 120, which he attempted against Van Gerwen.
With the possible exception of a five-set match against Michael Barnard in the 2018/19 World Championship, De Sousa is likely to have never participated in such a long and consequential match as the one that awaits him on Sunday.
His opponent, unlikely to allow De Sousa more than 15 darts to hold or 12 darts to break, is no stranger to matches that stretch on for hours.
Thus, the Portuguese dynamo, currently in the best form of his career, must exchange his high averages and high checkouts for steady, sensible, endurance-focused play to triumph in best-of-19 legs - and probably avoid the exhibition-style 120 finish.