The Form Guide: Brilliant Bunting breaks new ground

Stephen Bunting (PDC)

PDC Stats Analyst Christopher Kempf assesses the top ten PDC stars - based on their last 200 legs played following last weekend's International Darts Open in Riesa.

#1 Averages - Luke Littler
#1 OChE - Luke Littler
#1 Doubles - Damon Heta
#1 171-180 - Luke Littler
#1 99, 101+ Checkout - Gian van Veen

PDC Form Guide

Stephen Bunting's maiden European Tour title has reaped him substantial dividends both in Order of Merit income and in the performance-based metrics measured in the Form Guide.

For the first time, he has surpassed Michael van Gerwen in averages on a 2-point increase relative to March, bringing him to 98.37 - his highest 200-leg figure in the past two years.

92 maxima also represents a high point for 'The Bullet' - the only player with more is, of course, the power-scorer par excellence Luke Littler.

Two of those 180s came in a deciding-leg masterclass at the International Darts Open against world number one Luke Humphries, one of the few remaining players above Bunting on the Form Guide.

If Bunting is finding ways to win like never before, he is making life difficult for himself - as the player with the 15th highest OChE rating in the PDC, he is throwing away many of his 180s on losing efforts in legs and has a 200-leg doubles percentage of only 36.4%.

If Bunting becomes able to win more of his legs in 15 darts or fewer, he will defeat players like Humphries more authoritatively, even if his averages do not increase.

The irrepressible Gary Anderson continues to throw perfect legs of darts and win titles against players young enough to be his children.

He is, once again, the most improved player in the PDC, having further boosted his average after winning Players Championship 7 last month.

His nine-darter against Krzysztof Ratajski is one of only 200 legs considered in the Form Guide calculations, but it was an emblematic coup for a week in which the 'Flying Scotsman' averaged over 109 three times, including a 112 average registered against old rival James Wade.

The 97.89 average of his most recent 200 legs places him eighth in the PDC, on par with most recent figures set forth by Premier League regulars.

A 7.09 boost to his OChE rating, moreover, has all but erased a 12-point deficit previously existing in March between him and Gerwyn Price, leaving him on a rating north of 60.

The PDC's leading player in doubles accuracy - Damon Heta - may wonder why all the doubles he has hit have earned him relatively little prize money.

He is a remarkably efficient player - his OChE rating of 58 places him tenth in the world - and no player has been more consistently effective at completing checkouts over the past six months.

However, the Australian's output of trebles hit lags behind those of his rivals. While 180s are not a good predictor of the outcome of matches, they are indicative of how consistently a player is scoring.

In Heta's case, 52 maxima (less than half the total recorded by Littler in the same period of time) and 37% accuracy on treble 20 (compare to 41% for Bunting and 43% for Price) are not giving 'The Heat' enough opportunities to be excellent on doubles before his opponent checks out. 

Just as averages can reward players who score well in legs they eventually lose, so too can a 46% doubles percentage reflect lots of first-dart checkouts which could just as well have been won in two or three darts with no consequences for the leg.

*OChE (Ordinal Checkout Efficiency) explained:
OChE is a metric designed to evaluate the efficiency at which players convert their averages into legs won.
The statistic is the % of legs a player would expect to win on the ProTour, calculated from a weighted average of 4,5, 6 & 7 visit checkout rates.

Follow Christopher on Twitter @ochepedia